By Terry Kilakos
April 16, 2025
Bank of Canada April 2025 interest rate decision. In a highly anticipated decision, the Bank of Canada (BoC) announced today that it will hold its overnight policy rate at 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%. While many expected this pause, the broader context revealed in the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) makes it clear: this is not a moment of calm, but a moment of watching, waiting, and hoping the storm doesn’t make landfall.
Today’s announcement isn’t just about interest rates; it’s about navigating through a minefield of global uncertainty. From rising tariffs and an increasingly erratic U.S. trade policy to a cooling Chinese economy and jittery financial markets, Canada is standing in the eye of a global economic hurricane.
The Dual-Scenario Approach: A Sign of the Times
In a rare move, the Bank’s April MPR doesn’t offer a clear path forward. Instead, it presents two plausible scenarios for how the Canadian economy might unfold, depending on the evolution of U.S. trade policy:
- Mild Trade Turbulence – In this case, tariffs remain limited and uncertainty stays high. Canadian growth slows temporarily, but inflation hovers around the 2% target. This is the best-case scenario.
- Full-Blown Trade War – A prolonged conflict with widespread tariffs drives Canada into recession in 2025, with inflation spiking above 3% in 2026 due to higher import costs.
The use of dual projections signals just how uncertain the environment has become. Central banks are generally known for their calm, calculated projections. For the BoC to say, “Here are two different roads we might go down, and we don’t know which it will be,” is an extraordinary admission that even they can’t predict what’s coming next.
Global Growth: From Momentum to Mayhem
2024 ended on a relatively positive note for global markets, with many countries showing signs of economic strength and inflation coming back down to target levels. But 2025 is proving to be a different story.
- United States: Policy volatility has driven up inflation expectations and undermined business confidence.
- Euro Area: Weakness persists in manufacturing, and growth has been modest at best.
- China: Once the engine of global growth, its economic performance has cooled off in early 2025.
Adding fuel to the fire, oil prices have declined significantly since January, mostly due to concerns about a broader global slowdown. While cheaper energy is normally good news for Canadian consumers, it’s a double-edged sword for an oil-producing country like Canada.
The Canadian Story: Confidence Eroded, Growth Stalled
Here at home, the economic picture is murky. Tariffs and global trade uncertainty are clearly taking their toll:
- Consumer and business confidence is down.
- Residential investment and business spending have softened.
- Employment declined in March, and companies are already reporting plans to scale back hiring.
- Wage growth continues to moderate, which isn’t surprising given the broader economic malaise.
There was a small uptick in inflation—2.3% in March—but that’s already being tempered by the removal of the consumer carbon tax, lower oil prices, and the end of temporary GST/HST suspensions. The BoC rightly points out that while some price pressures could emerge from tariffs and supply chain disruptions, the net result is still highly unpredictable.
Inflation: A Delicate Tug-of-War
Inflation expectations are being pulled in two directions. On the one hand, a slowing economy usually means lower inflation as demand dries up. On the other, tariffs and disruptions in global supply chains push prices higher.
This is a classic stagflationary setup—low growth or recession paired with elevated inflation. While we’re not there yet, the risk is real. Businesses are already warning they’ll need to pass rising input costs onto consumers. The BoC’s balancing act becomes even more delicate in this kind of environment.
Why Hold Rates?
Against this chaotic backdrop, it makes sense that the BoC chose to hold steady. Raising rates could crush already-weak consumer and business activity. Cutting rates might add fuel to the inflation fire or cause a collapse in confidence in the BoC’s commitment to price stability.
Holding at 2.75% is, in a sense, the most prudent path—not because it offers a solution, but because it avoids making things worse.
The BoC’s messaging today was clear: they are focused on keeping inflation under control while supporting economic growth—but with eyes wide open to the fact that monetary policy has its limits. It cannot resolve trade wars. It cannot fix global uncertainty. What it can do is try to maintain confidence that inflation will remain under control.
Real Estate Implications: Short-Term Relief, Long-Term Watchfulness
For Canadians navigating the real estate market, today’s announcement offers some short-term relief. Holding rates steady means existing mortgage holders with variable rates won’t see an increase in payments—for now.
However, the risks on the horizon could have mixed effects:
- If we veer into the recession scenario, interest rates could fall—but so could home prices and employment prospects.
- If tariffs persist and inflation climbs, rates may need to rise again, putting pressure on borrowers.
Today’s decision won’t spark a major boom or bust in real estate, but it should remind everyone that we are not in a stable environment. Buyers and investors must remain nimble.
A Mortgage Professional’s Take: Be Proactive, Not Reactive
As someone with nearly two decades in the mortgage industry, I can’t stress this enough: uncertainty requires planning. The biggest mistake clients can make in times like these is assuming the status quo will continue.
Here’s what I’m advising my clients:
- Lock in now if you’re risk-averse. Fixed rates are still historically low. Peace of mind might be worth the premium.
- Build in flexibility. If you’re going variable, ensure your budget can handle potential increases.
- Keep an eye on cash flow. Recession or not, weaker job markets can hit households hard.
- Stress test your budget beyond current qualification rules. Assume higher costs and lower income, and see if the math still works.
A Turning Point, Not a Destination
Today’s Bank of Canada April 2025 interest rate decision to hold rates is not a turning point towards stability—it’s a signal that we are in a fragile, evolving economic moment. The BoC has acknowledged the scale of the uncertainty ahead, and that honesty is both refreshing and sobering.
Over the next few months, all eyes will be on how trade tensions evolve, how Canadian households respond to rising prices and a weakening job market, and whether inflation remains anchored. The next rate announcement is scheduled for June 4, 2025, and the next Monetary Policy Report will come July 30, 2025.
Until then, the best thing we can do—whether as homeowners, business owners, or investors—is to stay informed, stay flexible, and prepare for multiple outcomes. Because in this economy, it’s not just about playing the hand you’re dealt—it’s about preparing for the next shuffle.
Terry Kilakos is the President of North East Real Estate & Mortgage Agency and Owner of Coldwell Banker Commercial Alliance. With over 17 years of experience in real estate and mortgage lending, Terry is dedicated to helping Canadians make informed, confident financial decisions.